The budget.
Two decades.
Surplus from 2035.
The budget runs in two phases. The first decade is characterised by elevated spending as the SWF-financed transitions land. From 2035 onward the budget is in structural surplus. By 2050 the cumulative balance exceeds $3.1 trillion.
-$1.4T
Cumulative low (2029)
+$1.3T
Cumulative balance, 2040
+$3.1T
Cumulative balance, 2050
$7.9T
ABGF state transfers, 2025–2050
Cumulative budget balance, 2025–2050
Two phases: a $1.4 trillion deficit floor in 2029 as the SWF transitions land, then sustained surplus accumulation from 2035.
Annual revenue vs. expenditure
Revenue grows faster than expenditure once the new tax base activates and the SWF amortises its deployments.
Headline numbers, every fifth year
| ($ billions) | 2025 | 2026 | 2029 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax revenue | 692 | 770 | 917 | 1,739 | 2,767 |
| Less: state share | (85) | (164) | (179) | (248) | (395) |
| Non-tax revenue | 54 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 |
| Home sales proceeds | — | — | 200 | — | — |
| Total revenue | 661 | 646 | 978 | 1,531 | 2,412 |
| Welfare | 228 | 159 | 174 | 241 | 384 |
| Health (Healthcoverall — federal share) | 103 | 167 | 188 | 280 | 446 |
| Aged care | 28 | 28 | 38 | 95 | 151 |
| Defence | 54 | 150 | 164 | 227 | 361 |
| Education | 46 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 22 |
| Infrastructure | 43 | 100 | 143 | 143 | 227 |
| Other operating | 189 | 15 | 17 | 21 | 33 |
| Interest expense | 25 | 35 | 54 | — | — |
| SWF contribution | — | 152 | 258 | — | — |
| Total expenditure | 717 | 815 | 1,046 | 1,021 | 1,624 |
| Surplus / (deficit) | (56) | (169) | (68) | 510 | 788 |
| Cumulative balance | (1,046) | (1,215) | (1,430) | 1,292 | 3,121 |
The Australian Budget Growth Fund (ABGF) — the rebuilt federal-state transfer mechanism — sits inside this budget at $7.9 trillion of cumulative transfers between 2025 and 2050. See States Funding.